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 Systems Modelling for Short Rotation Woody Crops (Mô hình hệ thống cho rừng quay vòng ngắn)
Tác giả hoặc Nhóm tác giả: Nguyen, H. T., Davies, E. G. R., Dyck, M., Blank, M., & Krygier, R.
Nơi đăng: The International Poplar Symposium VI, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; Số: N/A;Từ->đến trang: N/A;Năm: 2014
Lĩnh vực: Kỹ thuật; Loại: Bài báo khoa học; Thể loại: Quốc tế
TÓM TẮT
ABSTRACT
Short rotation woody crop (SRWC) systems are complex and involve numerous interactions and feedbacks among different elements: climate, wastewater and biosolids characteristics, irrigation, soil characteristics, woody crop establishment and growth, energy content, environmental regulations, and economics, for example. It is thus critical to have a comprehensive, systems-based tool to understand these interactions and feedbacks. In this research, “system dynamics” – a widely-used method for representing and modelling complex systems – is used to develop an integrated decision-support tool for planning viable, sustainable SRWC systems. The first step in developing a systems model is to construct causal loop diagrams (CLDs), from which stock and flow diagrams (SFD) and decision-support tools (DSTs) are developed. This presentation will describe CLDs for SRWC systems: a single comprehensive CLD for the entire SRWC system is first presented, followed by a set of seven CLDs that provide greater detail on 1) biomass production, 2) irrigation supply, 3) environmental quality, 4) bioenergy, 5) land use, 6) production and 7) SRC policy. The author will then describe a simulation model for SRWC system at Whitecourt, Alberta, and present some validated results. Based on 8 years of data (2006 to 2013), the comparison between model-predicted and observed values show that the model matches biomass production (R2=0.98) and tree height (R2=0.91) data well. The model predicts summer season irrigation requirements acceptably well (R2=0.73). Differences between modelled and observed soil EC values for most years are within 10%, except in 2008 with 20% and 2007 with 50%. These results show that the model will be helpful in supporting decision-makers to plan appropriately for the establishment of future SRWCs and thereby to optimize their investments and the end uses of the obtained SRWC biomass. Keywords: systems modeling, woody crops, short rotation coppices, system dynamics, SRWCs.
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