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 An improved the prediction accuracy of the Fractional - order accumulated Grey model by Fourier series and Its application in Container Throughput Forecasting in Danang Port, Vietnam
Tác giả hoặc Nhóm tác giả: Van Thanh, Phan; Van Duy, Nguyen
Nơi đăng: Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics; Số: 4;Từ->đến trang: 176-184;Năm: 2025
Lĩnh vực: Kinh tế; Loại: Bài báo khoa học; Thể loại: Quốc tế
TÓM TẮT
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of fractional- order accumulated Grey model (GMr (1,1)), this study using Fourier series to modify their residual error of this model. To verify the effectiveness and the contribution of the proposed approach in modeling the Container Throughput in the future, the volume of Container Throughput in Danang Port from 2011 to 2023 is used for the modeling to forecast the Container Throughput demand from 2025 to 2028. Forecasting results proved that the Fourier- GMr (1,1) is a better than the GMr (1,1) model with the lowest MAPE =0% and 5.59% for in sample and out of sample data, respectively. This result is not only show the effectiveness of proposed model but also offers valuable insights for Danang policymakers in orientation and planning management agency so as to boost the development of upcoming port activities.
ABSTRACT
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of fractional- order accumulated Grey model (GMr (1,1)), this study using Fourier series to modify their residual error of this model. To verify the effectiveness and the contribution of the proposed approach in modeling the Container Throughput in the future, the volume of Container Throughput in Danang Port from 2011 to 2023 is used for the modeling to forecast the Container Throughput demand from 2025 to 2028. Forecasting results proved that the Fourier- GMr (1,1) is a better than the GMr (1,1) model with the lowest MAPE =0% and 5.59% for in sample and out of sample data, respectively. This result is not only show the effectiveness of proposed model but also offers valuable insights for Danang policymakers in orientation and planning management agency so as to boost the development of upcoming port activities.
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